Shamrock vs Prana: A Story of Confusing Form and Unexpected Results
The recent back-and-forth between Shamrock and Prana has left punters scratching their heads and the handicapper in a tough spot. Just two weeks ago, on May 25, Prana had clearly beaten Shamrock by five lengths, finishing second to Meropi. In that race, Prana was carrying 5 kilos less than Shamrock, a notable weight advantage.
Fast forward 14 days, both horses met again – this time over a mile – and Shamrock turned the tables, beating Prana by over two lengths at equal weights. What happened? Did Shamrock suddenly improve by 7 lengths, or did Prana drop performance drastically?
Some might argue the extra furlong (from 7 furlongs to a mile) made a difference, but both horses have previously performed well over a mile. This sudden reversal in form raises serious doubts about consistency and transparency.
An Older Pattern: Past Races Tell a Different Story
Even before these two recent races, on South India Derby Day, Shamrock had beaten Prana by less than a length, despite giving away 1.5 kilos. This suggested that Prana, with a 5-kilo advantage, should easily beat Shamrock under normal circumstances.
That belief seemed to hold on May 25. But two weeks later, the reverse happened. Interestingly, each time Prana lost while carrying a weight advantage, he was also the favourite, while Shamrock was available at attractive odds.
This brings up a larger issue: is the betting ring influencing race outcomes? How can punters rely on form when performances seem to change based on odds? These “sudden improvements” are happening too often, and it’s high time the stewards and race officials step in to investigate such cases more seriously.
HH Krishnaraja Wadiyar Cup: A Stunning Upset
In this main event, Prana started as the even-money favourite, while Shamrock was at long odds of 7/1. Given their previous encounter, this seemed logical. But again, the tables turned, with Shamrock winning easily.
Such dramatic changes in performance over just two weeks are troubling. The racing authorities need to address this inconsistency, especially when the same horses produce wildly different results under similar conditions.
Major Upsets Continue in Other Races
Lux Aeterna Shocks Money Bags in Diablo Plate
In another twist, Lux Aeterna, a 10-to-1 outsider from Sulaiman Attaollahi’s stable, beat the much-fancied Money Bags in the Diablo Plate run over seven furlongs.
Money Bags, who had impressed during his debut but missed the winter season due to a training setback, was heavily backed by punters after an encouraging mock race. Many expected an easy win, but the favourite tired out in the final stages, while Lux Aeterna powered ahead.
This surprise loss also raises doubts about Money Bags’ ability to perform in the Colts Championship, unless he improves dramatically – just like several other horses are seemingly doing in a short time.
Emphatic Claims a Commanding Win in Mystic Memory Plate
Emphatic, trained by Padmanabhan, won the Mystic Memory Plate with style, shortening from 7/2 to 5/2 in the betting. He took control near the distance marker and fought off a late challenge from Victor Hugo, trained by Irfan Ghatala.
Super Marvella, from Neil Devaney’s stable, ran a surprisingly good race to finish third, while Zuri, the second favourite who was better placed at weights compared to Emphatic in their last meeting, flopped again.
Pluto Surprises in the Speaker’s Cup
A Front-Running Win with a Twist
Pluto, from Deepesh Narredu’s stable, shocked punters by winning the Speaker’s Cup in front-running fashion under Yash Narredu. Del Aviz, the second favourite, followed him home and might have had a better chance if apprentice Ramswarup had found the rails run. Unfortunately, he had to switch out, losing momentum at a crucial moment.
Never Give In ran a strong race to finish third, while other well-supported horses like Art Collector and Divine Art were never in the picture, making Pluto’s job easier.
Charismatic Returns with a Powerful Victory
After a disappointing run in Mumbai, Charismatic, trained by Prasanna Kumar and ridden by Antony Raj, bounced back with an impressive win over Glorious Strides. This solid effort has earned Charismatic an entry into the Colts Trial Stakes scheduled for June 22, sponsored by Zavaray Poonawalla.
Art of Romance showed improvement to finish third, while Carter is also shaping up to win soon.
Everynsky Plate (Upper Division): Petaluma Shines, Midnight Blue Fails
After the withdrawal of Wings Of Fury, all the betting money went on Midnight Blue, trained by Rajesh Narredu. The horse became a strong favourite at 75/100, but despite a good position early on, failed miserably when the race heated up.
Instead, Petaluma, trained by Leo D’Silva, led from start to finish and won easily under jockey G Vivek. Aatherv impressed by finishing second, while Beauty Star ended up third.
Midnight Blue’s poor run suggests he might not be worth following until he shows real improvement in future trials.
Refined Aggression Impresses in Lower Division
In the lower division of the Everynsky Plate, Refined Aggression from Prasanna Kumar’s stable justified favouritism. Jockey Vivek, despite almost getting unseated mid-race, managed to guide the horse to a fine win on debut.
The win was so impressive that his owners are planning to enter this son of Phoenix Tower in the second classic of the season, believing he has the talent to compete at that level.
Lady Invictus Makes Light Work in the Nandi Plate
In the Nandi Plate over seven furlongs, Lady Invictus, trained by Michael Eshwer and ridden by Trevor, made every post a winning one. She never faced any pressure and won with ease.
Bruce Almighty came in second, followed by Breeze Bluster, while Star Admiral was withdrawn from the race.
Horses to Follow
Here are the horses worth adding to your punter’s notebook based on their runs and potential:
- Shamrock – Bounced back strongly, defied odds.
- Lux Aeterna – Showed class against a strong favourite.
- Victor Hugo – Eye-catching late run, worth tracking.
- Del Aviz – Needs better racing luck, but has ability.
- Charismatic – Back in form, now targeting Colts Trial.
- Art of Romance – Improving, can surprise.
- Aatherv – Ran on well, close to a win.
- Refined Aggression – Sparkling debut, classic contender.
- Carter – Progressing steadily.
- Lady Invictus – Won effortlessly, may repeat.
